Modelos matemáticos para estimativa do consumo máximo de oxigênio pela ventilometria de esforço em indivíduos saudáveis

The relation between metabolic demand and maximal oxygen consumption during exercise have been investigated in different areas of knowledge. In the health field, the determination of maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) is considered a method to classify the level of physical fitness or the risk of cardiocirculatory diseases. The accuracy to obtain data provides a better evaluation of functional responses and allows a reduction in the error margin at the moment of risk classification, as well as, at the moment of determination of aerobic exercise work load. In Brasil, the use of respirometry associated to ergometric test became an opition in the cardiorespiratory evaluation. This equipment allows predictions concerning the oxyredutase process, making it possible to identify physiological responses to physical effort as the respiratory threshold. This thesis focused in the development of mathematical models developed by multiple regression validated by the stepwise method, aiming to predict the VO2max based on respiratory responses to physical effort. The sample was composed of a ramdom sample of 181 healthy individuals, men and women, that were randomized to two groups: regression group and cross validation group (GV). The voluntiars were submitted to a incremental treadmill test; objetiving to determinate of the second respiratory threshold (LVII) and the Peak VO2max. Using the método forward addition method 11 models of VO2max prediction in trendmill were developded. No significative differences were found between the VO2max meansured and the predicted by models when they were compared using ANOVA One-Way and the Post Hoc test of Turkey. We concluded that the developed mathematical models allow a prediction of the VO2max of healthy young individuals based on the LVII

Análise comparativa entre simuladores de linha de fluxo e diferenças finitas para um reservatório de petróleo submetido a injeção de água

Water injection is the most widely used method for supplementary recovery in many oil fields due to various reasons, like the fact that water is an effective displacing agent of low viscosity oils, the water injection projects are relatively simple to establish and the water availability at a relatively low cost. For design of water injection projects is necessary to do reservoir studies in order to define the various parameters needed to increase the effectiveness of the method. For this kind of study can be used several mathematical models classified into two general categories: analytical or numerical. The present work aims to do a comparative analysis between the results presented by flow lines simulator and conventional finite differences simulator; both types of simulators are based on numerical methods designed to model light oil reservoirs subjected to water injection. Therefore, it was defined two reservoir models: the first one was a heterogeneous model whose petrophysical properties vary along the reservoir and the other one was created using average petrophysical properties obtained from the first model. Comparisons were done considering that the results of these two models were always in the same operational conditions. Then some rock and fluid parameters have been changed in both models and again the results were compared. From the factorial design, that was done to study the sensitivity analysis of reservoir parameters, a few cases were chosen to study the role of water injection rate and the vertical position of wells perforations in production forecast. It was observed that the results from the two simulators are quite similar in most of the cases; differences were found only in those cases where there was an increase in gas solubility ratio of the model. Thus, it was concluded that in flow simulation of reservoirs analogous of those now studied, mainly when the gas solubility ratio is low, the conventional finite differences simulator may be replaced by flow lines simulator the production forecast is compatible but the computational processing time is lower.

Extração supercrítica do óleo de linhaça: construção do extrator, estudo de parâmetros de processo, avaliação química e antioxidante do produto

The aim of the present study was to extract vegetable oil from brown linseed (Linum usitatissimum L.), determine fatty acid levels, the antioxidant capacity of the extracted oil and perform a rapid economic assessment of the SFE process in the manufacture of oil. The experiments were conducted in a test bench extractor capable of operating with carbon dioxide and co-solvents, obeying 23 factorial planning with central point in triplicate, and having process yield as response variable and pressure, temperature and percentage of cosolvent as independent variables. The yield (mass of extracted oil/mass of raw material used) ranged from 2.2% to 28.8%, with the best results obtained at 250 bar and 50ºC, using 5% (v/v) ethanol co-solvent. The influence of the variables on extraction kinetics and on the composition of the linseed oil obtained was investigated. The extraction kinetic curves obtained were based on different mathematical models available in the literature. The Martínez et al. (2003) model and the Simple Single Plate (SSP) model discussed by Gaspar et al. (2003) represented the experimental data with the lowest mean square errors (MSE). A manufacturing cost of US$17.85/kgoil was estimated for the production of linseed oil using TECANALYSIS software and the Rosa and Meireles method (2005). To establish comparisons with SFE, conventional extraction tests were conducted with a Soxhlet device using petroleum ether. These tests obtained mean yields of 35.2% for an extraction time of 5h. All the oil samples were sterilized and characterized in terms of their composition in fatty acids (FA) using gas chromatography. The main fatty acids detected were: palmitic (C16:0), stearic (C18:0), oleic (C18:1), linoleic (C18:2n-6) and α-linolenic (C18:3n-3). The FA contents obtained with Soxhlet dif ered from those obtained with SFE, with higher percentages of saturated and monounsaturated FA with the Soxhlet technique using petroleum ether. With respect to α-linolenic content (main component of linseed oil) in the samples, SFE performed better than Soxhlet extraction, obtaining percentages between 51.18% and 52.71%, whereas with Soxhlet extraction it was 47.84%. The antioxidant activity of the oil was assessed in the β-carotene/linoleic acid system. The percentages of inhibition of the oxidative process reached 22.11% for the SFE oil, but only 6.09% for commercial oil (cold pressing), suggesting that the SFE technique better preserves the phenolic compounds present in the seed, which are likely responsible for the antioxidant nature of the oil. In vitro tests with the sample displaying the best antioxidant response were conducted in rat liver homogenate to investigate the inhibition of spontaneous lipid peroxidation or autooxidation of biological tissue. Linseed oil proved to be more efficient than fish oil (used as standard) in decreasing lipid peroxidation in the liver tissue of Wistar rats, yielding similar results to those obtained with the use of BHT (synthetic antioxidant). Inhibitory capacity may be explained by the presence of phenolic compounds with antioxidant activity in the linseed oil. The results obtained indicate the need for more detailed studies, given the importance of linseed oil as one of the greatest sources of ω3 among vegetable oils

Avaliação de floculante natural à base de Moringa oleifera no tratamento de água produzida na indústria do petróleo: aplicação da técnica combinada floculação/flotação

The principal effluent in the oil industry is the produced water, which is commonly associated to the produced oil. It presents a pronounced volume of production and it can be reflected on the environment and society, if its discharge is unappropriated. Therefore, it is indispensable a valuable careful to establish and maintain its management. The traditional treatment of produced water, usualy includes both tecniques, flocculation and flotation. At flocculation processes, there are traditional floculant agents that aren’t well specified by tecnichal information tables and still expensive. As for the flotation process, it’s the step in which is possible to separate the suspended particles in the effluent. The dissolved air flotation (DAF) is a technique that has been consolidating economically and environmentally, presenting great reliability when compared with other processes. The DAF is presented as a process widely used in various fields of water and wastewater treatment around the globe. In this regard, this study was aimed to evaluate the potential of an alternative natural flocculant agent based on Moringa oleifera to reduce the amount of oil and grease (TOG) in produced water from the oil industry by the method of flocculation/DAF. the natural flocculant agent was evaluated by its efficacy, as well as its efficiency when compared with two commercial flocculant agents normally used by the petroleum industry. The experiments were conducted following an experimental design and the overall efficiencies for all flocculants were treated through statistical calculation based on the use of STATISTICA software version 10.0. Therefore, contour surfaces were obtained from the experimental design and were interpreted in terms of the response variable removal efficiency TOG (total oil and greases). The plan still allowed to obtain mathematical models for calculating the response variable in the studied conditions. Commercial flocculants showed similar behavior, with an average overall efficiency of 90% for oil removal, however it is the economical analysis the decisive factor to choose one of these flocculant agents to the process. The natural alternative flocculant agent based on Moringa oleifera showed lower separation efficiency than those of commercials one (average 70%), on the other hand this flocculant causes less environmental impacts and it´s less expensive

Análise comparativa entre simuladores de linha de fluxo e diferenças finitas para um reservatório de petróleo submetido a injeção de água

Water injection is the most widely used method for supplementary recovery in many oil fields due to various reasons, like the fact that water is an effective displacing agent of low viscosity oils, the water injection projects are relatively simple to establish and the water availability at a relatively low cost. For design of water injection projects is necessary to do reservoir studies in order to define the various parameters needed to increase the effectiveness of the method. For this kind of study can be used several mathematical models classified into two general categories: analytical or numerical. The present work aims to do a comparative analysis between the results presented by flow lines simulator and conventional finite differences simulator; both types of simulators are based on numerical methods designed to model light oil reservoirs subjected to water injection. Therefore, it was defined two reservoir models: the first one was a heterogeneous model whose petrophysical properties vary along the reservoir and the other one was created using average petrophysical properties obtained from the first model. Comparisons were done considering that the results of these two models were always in the same operational conditions. Then some rock and fluid parameters have been changed in both models and again the results were compared. From the factorial design, that was done to study the sensitivity analysis of reservoir parameters, a few cases were chosen to study the role of water injection rate and the vertical position of wells perforations in production forecast. It was observed that the results from the two simulators are quite similar in most of the cases; differences were found only in those cases where there was an increase in gas solubility ratio of the model. Thus, it was concluded that in flow simulation of reservoirs analogous of those now studied, mainly when the gas solubility ratio is low, the conventional finite differences simulator may be replaced by flow lines simulator the production forecast is compatible but the computational processing time is lower.

Melhoria da segurança pública: uma proposta para alocação de unidades policiais utilizando o modelo das p-medianas e do caixeiro viajante

The decrease in crime is one of the core issues that cause concern in society today. This study aims to propose improvements to public safety from the choice of points to the location of police units, ie the points which support the car and the police. For this, three models were developed in order to assist decision making regarding the best placement of these bases. The Model of Police Units Routing has the intention to analyze the current configuration of a given region and develop optimal routes for round preventative. The Model of Allocation and Routing for New Police Units (MARNUP) used the model of facility location called p-median weighted and traveling salesman problem (TSP) combined aiming an ideal setting for regions that do not yet have support points or to assess how far the distribution is present in relation to that found in solution. The Model Redefinition and Routing Unit Police (MRRUP) seek to change the current positioning taking into account the budgetary constraints of the decision maker. To verify the applicability of these models we used data from 602 points to instances of police command that is responsible for the capital city of Natal. The city currently has 31 police units for 36 of these 19 districts and police have some assistance. This reality can lead to higher costs and higher response times for answering emergency calls. The results of the models showed that in an ideal situation it is possible to define a distance of 500 km/round, whereas in this 900 km are covered by approximately round. However, a change from three-point lead reduced to 700 km / round which represents a decrease of 22% in the route. This reduction should help improve response time to emergency care, improving the level of service provided by the increase of solved cases, reducing police shifts and routing preventive patrols

Um sistema para estimação da vazão de gás de poços produzindo por Plunger Lift para vaso separador de teste em plataformas de petróleo

This work intends to analyze the behavior of the gas flow of plunger lift wells producing to well testing separators in offshore production platforms to aim a technical procedure to estimate the gas flow during the slug production period. The motivation for this work appeared from the expectation of some wells equipped with plunger lift method by PETROBRAS in Ubarana sea field located at Rio Grande do Norte State coast where the produced fluids measurement is made in well testing separators at the platform. The oil artificial lift method called plunger lift is used when the available energy of the reservoir is not high enough to overcome all the necessary load losses to lift the oil from the bottom of the well to the surface continuously. This method consists, basically, in one free piston acting as a mechanical interface between the formation gas and the produced liquids, greatly increasing the well s lifting efficiency. A pneumatic control valve is mounted at the flow line to control the cycles. When this valve opens, the plunger starts to move from the bottom to the surface of the well lifting all the oil and gas that are above it until to reach the well test separator where the fluids are measured. The well test separator is used to measure all the volumes produced by the well during a certain period of time called production test. In most cases, the separators are designed to measure stabilized flow, in other words, reasonably constant flow by the use of level and pressure electronic controllers (PLC) and by assumption of a steady pressure inside the separator. With plunger lift wells the liquid and gas flow at the surface are cyclical and unstable what causes the appearance of slugs inside the separator, mainly in the gas phase, because introduce significant errors in the measurement system (e.g.: overrange error). The flow gas analysis proposed in this work is based on two mathematical models used together: i) a plunger lift well model proposed by Baruzzi [1] with later modifications made by Bolonhini [2] to built a plunger lift simulator; ii) a two-phase separator model (gas + liquid) based from a three-phase separator model (gas + oil + water) proposed by Nunes [3]. Based on the models above and with field data collected from the well test separator of PUB-02 platform (Ubarana sea field) it was possible to demonstrate that the output gas flow of the separator can be estimate, with a reasonable precision, from the control signal of the Pressure Control Valve (PCV). Several models of the System Identification Toolbox from MATLAB® were analyzed to evaluate which one better fit to the data collected from the field. For validation of the models, it was used the AIC criterion, as well as a variant of the cross validation criterion. The ARX model performance was the best one to fit to the data and, this way, we decided to evaluate a recursive algorithm (RARX) also with real time data. The results were quite promising that indicating the viability to estimate the output gas flow rate from a plunger lift well producing to a well test separator, with the built-in information of the control signal to the PCV

Estudo dos parâmetros de extração de fenol de efluentes aquosos por um tensoativo não iônico

Environmental sustainability has become one of the topics of greatest interest in industry, mainly due to effluent generation. Phenols are found in many industries effluents, these industries might be refineries, coal processing, pharmaceutical, plastics, paints and paper and pulp industries. Because phenolic compounds are toxic to humans and aquatic organisms, Federal Resolution CONAMA No. 430 of 13.05.2011 limits the maximum content of phenols, in 0.5 mg.L-1, for release in freshwater bodies. In the effluents treatment, the liquid-liquid extraction process is the most economical for the phenol recovery, because consumes little energy, but in most cases implements an organic solvent, and the use of it can cause some environmental problems due to the high toxicity of this compound. Because of this, exists a need for new methodologies, which aims to replace these solvents for biodegradable ones. Some literature studies demonstrate the feasibility of phenolic compounds removing from aqueous effluents, by biodegradable solvents. In this extraction kind called "Cloud Point Extraction" is used a nonionic surfactant as extracting agent of phenolic compounds. In order to optimize the phenol extraction process, this paper studies the mathematical modeling and optimization of extraction parameters and investigates the effect of the independent variables in the process. A 32 full factorial design has been done with operating temperature and surfactant concentration as independent variables and, parameters extraction: Volumetric fraction of coacervate phase, surfactant and residual concentration of phenol in dilute phase after separation phase and phenol extraction efficiency, as dependent variables. To achieve the objectives presented before, the work was carried out in five steps: (i) selection of some literature data, (ii) use of Box-Behnken model to find out mathematical models that describes the process of phenol extraction, (iii) Data analysis were performed using STATISTICA 7.0 and the analysis of variance was used to assess the model significance and prediction (iv) models optimization using the response surface method (v) Mathematical models validation using additional measures, from samples different from the ones used to construct the model. The results showed that the mathematical models found are able to calculate the effect of the surfactant concentration and the operating temperature in each extraction parameter studied, respecting the boundaries used. The models optimization allowed the achievement of consistent and applicable results in a simple and quick way leading to high efficiency in process operation.

Avaliacao de dados de secagem de suspensoes de polpas de frutas em leito de jorro com alimentacao intermitente

The objective of this work was the development and improvement of the mathematical models based on mass and heat balances, representing the drying transient process fruit pulp in spouted bed dryer with intermittent feeding. Mass and energy balance for drying, represented by a system of differential equations, were developed in Fortran language and adapted to the condition of intermittent feeding and mass accumulation. Were used the DASSL routine (Differential Algebraic System Solver) for solving the differential equation system and used a heuristic optimization algorithm in parameter estimation, the Particle Swarm algorithm. From the experimental data food drying, the differential models were used to determine the quantity of water and the drying air temperature at the exit of a spouted bed and accumulated mass of powder in the dryer. The models were validated using the experimental data of drying whose operating conditions, air temperature, flow rate and time intermittency, varied within the limits studied. In reviewing the results predicted, it was found that these models represent the experimental data of the kinetics of production and accumulation of powder and humidity and air temperature at the outlet of the dryer

Métodos estatísticos recursivos aplicados ao problema de estimação de vazão de gás em plantas de Plunger-lift

This work has as main objective to find mathematical models based on linear parametric estimation techniques applied to the problem of calculating the grow of gas in oil wells. In particular we focus on achieving grow models applied to the case of wells that produce by plunger-lift technique on oil rigs, in which case, there are high peaks in the grow values that hinder their direct measurement by instruments. For this, we have developed estimators based on recursive least squares and make an analysis of statistical measures such as autocorrelation, cross-correlation, variogram and the cumulative periodogram, which are calculated recursively as data are obtained in real time from the plant in operation; the values obtained for these measures tell us how accurate the used model is and how it can be changed to better fit the measured values. The models have been tested in a pilot plant which emulates the process gas production in oil wells

Secagem de resíduo de goiaba em secador convectivo de bandejas: modelagem matemática e análise do processo

Actually, Brazil is one of the larger fruit producer worldwide, with most of its production being consumed in nature way or either as juice or pulp. It is important to highlig ht in the fruit productive chain there are a lot lose due mainly to climate reasons, as well as storage, transportation, season, market, etc. It is known that in the pulp and fruit processing industy a yield of 50% (in mass) is usually obtained, with the other part discarded as waste. However, since most this waste has a high nutrient content it can be used to generate added - value products. In this case, drying plays an important role as an alternative process in order to improve these wastes generated by the fruit industry. However, despite the advantage of using this technique in order to improve such wastes, issues as a higher power demand as well as the thermal efficiency limitation should be addressed. Therefore, the control of the main variables in t his drying process is quite important in order to obtain operational conditions to produce a final product with the target specification as well as with a lower power cost. M athematical models can be applied to this process as a tool in order to optimize t he best conditions. The main aim of this work was to evaluate the drying behaviour of a guava industrial pulp waste using a batch system with a convective - tray dryer both experimentally and using mathematical modeling. In the experimental study , the dryin g carried out using a group of trays as well as the power consume were assayed as response to the effects of operational conditions (temperature, drying air flow rate and solid mass). Obtained results allowed observing the most significant variables in the process. On the other hand, the phenomenological mathematical model was validated and allowed to follow the moisture profile as well as the temperature in the solid and gas phases in every tray. Simulation results showed the most favorable procedure to o btain the minimum processing time as well as the lower power demand.

Modelagem matemática e experimental da perda de injetividade em poços canhoneados

Water injection in oil reservoirs is a recovery technique widely used for oil recovery. However, the injected water contains suspended particles that can be trapped, causing formation damage and injectivity decline. In such cases, it is necessary to stimulate the damaged formation looking forward to restore the injectivity of the injection wells. Injectivity decline causes a major negative impact to the economy of oil production, which is why, it is important to foresee the injectivity behavior for a good waterflooding management project. Mathematical models for injectivity losses allow studying the effect of the injected water quality, also the well and formation characteristics. Therefore, a mathematical model of injectivity losses for perforated injection wells was developed. The scientific novelty of this work relates to the modeling and prediction of injectivity decline in perforated injection wells, considering deep filtration and the formation of external cake in spheroidal perforations. The classic modeling for deep filtration was rewritten using spheroidal coordinates. The solution to the concentration of suspended particles was obtained analytically and the concentration of the retained particles, which cause formation damage, was solved numerically. The acquisition of the solution to impedance assumed a constant injection rate and the modified Darcy´s Law, defined as being the inverse of the normalized injectivity by the inverse of the initial injectivity. Finally, classic linear flow injectivity tests were performed within Berea sandstone samples, and within perforated samples. The parameters of the model, filtration and formation damage coefficients, obtained from the data, were used to verify the proposed modeling. The simulations showed a good fit to the experimental data, it was observed that the ratio between the particle size and pore has a large influence on the behavior of injectivity decline.

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Novo método para estimativa do gradiente de fratura para poços de petróleo

The development of oil wells drilling requires additional cares mainly if the drilling is in offshore ultra deep water with low overburden pressure gradients which cause low fracture gradients and, consequently, difficult the well drilling by the reduction of the operational window. To minimize, in the well planning phases, the difficulties faced by the drilling in those sceneries, indirect models are used to estimate fracture gradient that foresees approximate values for leakoff tests. These models generate curves of geopressures that allow detailed analysis of the pressure behavior for the whole well. Most of these models are based on the Terzaghi equation, just differentiating in the determination of the values of rock tension coefficient. This work proposes an alternative method for prediction of fracture pressure gradient based on a geometric correlation that relates the pressure gradients proportionally for a given depth and extrapolates it for the whole well depth, meaning that theses parameters vary in a fixed proportion. The model is based on the application of analytical proportion segments corresponding to the differential pressure related to the rock tension. The study shows that the proposed analytical proportion segments reaches values of fracture gradient with good agreement with those available for leakoff tests in the field area. The obtained results were compared with twelve different indirect models for fracture pressure gradient prediction based on the compacting effect. For this, a software was developed using Matlab language. The comparison was also made varying the water depth from zero (onshore wellbores) to 1500 meters. The leakoff tests are also used to compare the different methods including the one proposed in this work. The presented work gives good results for error analysis compared to other methods and, due to its simplicity, justify its possible application

Análise fractal da vasculatura arteriolar e venular da retina em pessoas sem doença ocular

Although it has been suggested that retinal vasculature is a diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) fractal, no study has been dedicated to standardizing its fractal analysis . The aims of this project was to standardize a method to estimate the fractal dimensions of retinal vasculature and to characterize their normal values; to determine if this estimation is dependent on skeletization and on segmentation and calculation methods; to assess the suitability of the DLA model and to determine the usefulness of log-log graphs in characterizing vasculature fractality . To achieve these aims, the information, mass-radius and box counting dimensions of 20 eyes vasculatures were compared when the vessels were manually or computationally segmented; the fractal dimensions of the vasculatures of 60 eyes of healthy volunteers were compared with those of 40 DLA models and the log-log graphs obtained were compared with those of known fractals and those of non-fractals. The main results were: the fractal dimensions of vascular trees were dependent on segmentation methods and dimension calculation methods, but there was no difference between manual segmentation and scale-space, multithreshold and wavelet computational methods; the means of the information and box dimensions for arteriolar trees were 1.29. against 1.34 and 1.35 for the venular trees; the dimension for the DLA models were higher than that for vessels; the log-log graphs were straight, but with varying local slopes, both for vascular trees and for fractals and non-fractals. This results leads to the following conclusions: the estimation of the fractal dimensions for retinal vasculature is dependent on its skeletization and on the segmentation and calculation methods; log-log graphs are not suitable as a fractality test; the means of the information and box counting dimensions for the normal eyes were 1.47 and 1.43, respectively, and the DLA model with optic disc seeding is not sufficient for retinal vascularization modeling